The Election Is Over. Now What for Your Investments?
Nov 4, 2026 · @Peter Owh
The ballots are counted, the yard signs are coming down, and many of us are glad to have our regular TV commercials back. With Democrats gaining control of Congress, divided government returns to Washington. That leaves one big question for investors: what happens next? History offers some helpful perspective.
Markets Don't Vote Red or Blue
After U.S. elections from 1980 through 2024, the S&P 500 posted positive returns in 19 of the 21 following one-year periods.
• Those gains came under divided government, unified Democratic control, and unified Republican control.
• The two exceptions, after the 1980 and 2000 elections, had more to do with broader economic challenges than with who won.
• Markets often value certainty more than the outcome itself. Once results are known, businesses can plan, invest, and move forward.
Gridlock Isn't Always Quiet
Wall Street has traditionally welcomed divided government because it can limit sweeping legislative changes. Still, the road may have a few bumps. Things to consider:
• Fiscal standoffs. With federal debt elevated, debates over spending and the debt ceiling could push Treasury yields higher and weigh on stock valuations.
• AI data centers. Greater scrutiny of construction and energy use could slow investment. That said, data centers support jobs and tax revenue for many states, which gives policymakers a reason to find a balance.
• Trade and foreign policy. These remain largely with the executive branch, so gridlock may not quiet tariff or geopolitical headlines.
Near-term volatility is possible, but political uncertainty does not necessarily translate into economic weakness.
Fundamentals Still Have the Final Say
The economy enters this new chapter on relatively solid footing.
• Advantages: Corporate earnings remain healthy, business investment continues to grow, and AI-related spending is supporting activity. Oxford Economics estimates AI-related investment and its associated wealth effect accounted for approximately 30% of total growth.
• Disadvantages: That reliance on AI is also a vulnerability. Inflation is proving persistent, borrowing costs are elevated, and geopolitical uncertainty continues to influence energy prices.
What This Means for You
Elections decide who makes policy, but economic fundamentals shape investment returns. History offers little evidence that investors benefit from making portfolio changes based on political predictions.
A diversified portfolio built around your long-term goals remains a more reliable roadmap than reacting to the next headline. If you'd like to talk through how any of this relates to your plan, our office is always happy to help.
Sources: AssetMark, "On The Mark," November 2026 Special Edition; Oxford Economics; FactSet.
This material is for informational purposes only and is not investment, tax, or legal advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.